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  #891  
Old Yesterday, 04:02 AM
Trickyday Trickyday is offline
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Originally Posted by Fottemberg View Post
Prepare your wallet for the boom. XD


My wallet is very nicely prepared (since April 2016).

But should I worry for the 'swing traders' and 'short sellers'
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  #892  
Old Yesterday, 04:54 AM
chithanh chithanh is offline
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Originally Posted by boom View Post
AMD building a x86 CPU that finally doesn't suck is not "innovation."
AMD did much more than release a CPU that doesn't suck.

Ryzen release caused significant upheaval in the CPU market, we are now at twice the price/perf. that we were just a few months ago. AMD's "democratize cores" initiative made massively parallel computing affordable with highly competitive CPUs:

8 core Ryzen 1700 for $329
16 core Threadripper 1950X for $999 (maybe there will be a cheaper 1950 model even)
32 core Epyc 7551P for $2100
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  #893  
Old Yesterday, 04:24 PM
boom boom is offline
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Originally Posted by chithanh View Post
AMD did much more than release a CPU that doesn't suck.

Ryzen release caused significant upheaval in the CPU market, we are now at twice the price/perf. that we were just a few months ago. AMD's "democratize cores" initiative made massively parallel computing affordable with highly competitive CPUs:

8 core Ryzen 1700 for $329
16 core Threadripper 1950X for $999 (maybe there will be a cheaper 1950 model even)
32 core Epyc 7551P for $2100
You're confusing finally having a competitive product with innovating. You are just describing what AMD releasing a CPU that doesn't suck has done to prices. What does AMD have that intel can not match with price cuts?
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  #894  
Old Yesterday, 05:17 PM
livebriand livebriand is offline
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Originally Posted by boom View Post
You're confusing finally having a competitive product with innovating. You are just describing what AMD releasing a CPU that doesn't suck has done to prices. What does AMD have that intel can not match with price cuts?
Are you following the whole Infinity Fabric/multiple die thing Boom?

AMD is offering Epyc at similar performance and half the price of the "competing" intel parts. Threadripper at $1000 is likely to end up around par with intel's currently non-existent 18 core Skylake-X desktop part, costing $2000.

The reason for this is the aforementioned and highly innovative Infinity Fabric which allows for near-perfect die scaling and near-100% yields. It is so far in advance of anything Intel has that Intel has basically given up any hope in the 1P market, they simply cannot compete with the 7551P with their huge monolithic dies.

Last edited by livebriand; Yesterday at 05:20 PM.
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  #895  
Old Yesterday, 05:27 PM
Moral Hazard Moral Hazard is offline
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Originally Posted by boom View Post
If you are company that builds x86 chips, building an x86 chip that doesn't suck is not innovation. It's called following your business model.

Innovation is K12 and that is nowhere to be found.
Innovation isn't being the 2nd x86 chip maker, it's being the 200th ARM chip maker?
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  #896  
Old Yesterday, 06:01 PM
Moral Hazard Moral Hazard is offline
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Originally Posted by boom View Post
You're confusing finally having a competitive product with innovating. You are just describing what AMD releasing a CPU that doesn't suck has done to prices. What does AMD have that intel can not match with price cuts?
Let's make the following assumptions: Intel's cost/mm2 is the same as AMD/GlobalFoundries, that the yields/mm2 are the same and that the largest intel Xeon chips at 24 cores are 3 times the size of AMD's 8 core Ryzen chips.

If the yields on the Ryzen chips happened to be 80% (which sounds high, though at least one rumour claimed this to be the case) then in order to make a 4 chip, 32 core EPYC processor, AMD would require a die area equal to 4/00.8 = 5 chips worth of die area.

As part of the assumption, then Intel's yield would be 0.8^3 = 0.512. To make their 24 core chip they need the equivalent of 3/0.512 = 5.86 Ryzen die equivalents.

In other words, it's likely cheaper for AMD to make a 32 core EPYC than for Intel to make a 24 core Xeon chip because of all the yield savings from using 4 small chips vs 1 big one. Yes there are a lot of assumptions here, but absent counter information they're all realistic, as far as I'm aware, and even if the yields are lower in reality then that would favor AMD even more.

So that's why Intel can't just match it with price cuts: They would have to lose money to actually force AMD to lose money as well. That would piss off both their shareholders and the FTC. AMD has innovated its way out of the trap of lower yields at smaller geometries. Like with integrated memory controllers and 64 bit x86 instructions this is something Intel is destined to copy from AMD.
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  #897  
Old Today, 02:58 AM
Stuckey Stuckey is offline
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Originally Posted by Moral Hazard View Post
AMD has innovated its way out of the trap of lower yields at smaller geometries. Like with integrated memory controllers and 64 bit x86 instructions this is something Intel is destined to copy from AMD.
Yeah, but I don't think that's going to help them much. EMIB may be a neat solution from a technical perspective, but from a cost one vs infinity fabric ?

The beauty of EPYC is not just that it's an MCM, but an MCM that is about as cheap to manufacture as possible, ie- it uses a cheap organic PCB with plain old copper tracks to join the dies together. But EMIB isn't going to be like that. I mean, sure, it will undoubtedly be cheaper than using a large silicon interposer. But cheaper than the method AMD are using to make EPYC ? Don't think so.

Basically, even if Intel manage to make a 10nm SomethingLake server MCM using EMIB, in cost terms, AMDs 7nm EPYC 2.0 using infinity fabric will still be cheaper to manufacture.
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  #898  
Old Today, 03:36 AM
chithanh chithanh is offline
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Originally Posted by boom View Post
What does AMD have that intel can not match with price cuts?
As others have pointed out, Infinity Fabric is central to AMD's new products. "Democratizing cores" is something which propels the entire market forward, at modest increase in cost per core for higher core counts. A 1950X will give you the performance of two 1800X's at almost exactly twice the cost, in a single socket.

Then there is a huge difference in lead times: The fun thing here is that AMD can arbitrarily package Zeppelin dies into Ryzens, Threadrippers or EPYCs to quickly react to market demand. While Intel needs to make KBL and 10/18/28 core SKLX dies just in case there is demand, and will have excess inventory or shortages when demand does not match predictions. The prices are just a consequence of this.

There are two possible reactions by Intel for this (besides their usual anti-competitive tactics): try to squeeze even more profit out of each customer (this was the path which Microsoft chose), or lower the prices in order to not let AMD gain too much share.
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  #899  
Old Today, 07:49 AM
Fottemberg Fottemberg is offline
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Originally Posted by chithanh View Post
or lower the prices in order to not let AMD gain too much share.
this is the best option for Intel. If AMD will gain market share, developers will tweak their own software for AMD uArchs.
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  #900  
Old Today, 11:48 AM
gruffi gruffi is offline
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Originally Posted by boom View Post
I am speaking towards the claim that "Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Is an Innovation Machine." AMD building a x86 CPU that finally doesn't suck is not "innovation."
The IF design and excellent SMT implementation IS some kind of innovation. At least in the x86 market. Intel cannot match both at the moment. Personally I also see more than 4 cores on a mainstream platform as an innovation. Except Thuban, which only had the old single thread "Star" cores, we haven't seen that before.
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