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Thread: Nvidia officially denies sub 20 percent Fermi yields

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by fry View Post
    Why don't they do this?
    Until the shortage eases, it won't work. ATI can command their own price more or less, but eventually, NV will sell their parts. Once demand can be met, then you can play pricing games.

    -Charlie

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by fry View Post
    Ok sorry i thought it was relevant to understanding WHY Nvidia chips are so much larger.
    Management arrogance. "We are the bestest, biggest, fastest, hottest thing out there" mentality. It worked for a while, but physics caught up with them. As ATI clearly shows, you can be vastly more efficient than either of the last two Nvidia architectures without many tricks.

    -Charlie

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by charlie View Post
    Until the shortage eases, it won't work. ATI can command their own price more or less, but eventually, NV will sell their parts. Once demand can be met, then you can play pricing games.
    Yeah. If ATI is supply constrained, lowering their price does not reduce Nivdia's market share, it just means that ATI stock sells out faster with less profit.

    This is where the market's concern with Nvidia's inventory come into play. When ATI can produce enough to start advancing their market share, Nvidia gets stuck holding the bag on any over production that they've ordered for a big loss. Nvidia's been trying to walk that tight rope for a while by making their partners commit to pre-orders, conditionally bundling old product with new, that kind of stuff.

    Watchers seem to expect a period where Nvidia takes a beating because 40nm production will reach the point where it can make cypress chips by the million but still can't make fermi at a profit. Of course that might not happen at all and we are already months after some people first expected it to happen. But it seems to be widely expected to happen this summer.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by douglar View Post
    Yeah. If ATI is supply constrained, lowering their price does not reduce Nivdia's market share, it just means that ATI stock sells out faster with less profit.

    This is where the market's concern with Nvidia's inventory come into play. When ATI can produce enough to start advancing their market share, Nvidia gets stuck holding the bag on any over production that they've ordered for a big loss. Nvidia's been trying to walk that tight rope for a while by making their partners commit to pre-orders, conditionally bundling old product with new, that kind of stuff.

    Watchers seem to expect a period where Nvidia takes a beating because 40nm production will reach the point where it can make cypress chips by the million but still can't make fermi at a profit. Of course that might not happen at all and we are already months after some people first expected it to happen. But it seems to be widely expected to happen this summer.
    The above being said, anyone more than me starting to think about the latest financial Nvidia financial report stating inventory grew with 17% and an expected Q2 sales forecast down on Q1? (if i remember correctly). And after that the Nv stock took a beating.

    So if TSMC can't produce the required volume for either company, where does that come from, and what does it consist of?

    Are GF100 sales really that bad?
    Nvidia partners not willing to take on anymore GF100 parts because that means they will give a heap of old Nv parts too?

    It would be really interesting to know what the analysts get to know that we don't...

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Crouch View Post
    So if TSMC can't produce the required volume for either company, where does that come from, and what does it consist of?

    Are GF100 sales really that bad?
    Nvidia partners not willing to take on anymore GF100 parts because that means they will give a heap of old Nv parts too?

    It would be really interesting to know what the analysts get to know that we don't...
    Personally I think Nvidia has a lot of the popular analysts under Jedi powers, payolla, or both. Looking at a lot of the recommendations hitting the news the week before earnings makes me thing those guys are gullible or have ulterior motives, like helping paying clients close positions.

    As for the Fermi sales, I think Nvidia found a way to bin the chips that allowed them to get more product on the shelves at a better performance than Charlie expected. It still isn't a very compelling product, but it isn't a complete embarrassment either. It is almost even an adequate place holder for the time being, but not quite, IMHO. I'd give it this epitaph: "It exceeded expectations because when it finally arrived, it was available in stores and only slightly embarrassing to own"

    The 40nm volume will arrive eventually. TMSC is converting old lines and adding capacity. It's just taking a long time.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Crouch View Post
    The above being said, anyone more than me starting to think about the latest financial Nvidia financial report stating inventory grew with 17% and an expected Q2 sales forecast down on Q1? (if i remember correctly). And after that the Nv stock took a beating.

    So if TSMC can't produce the required volume for either company, where does that come from, and what does it consist of?

    Are GF100 sales really that bad?
    Nvidia partners not willing to take on anymore GF100 parts because that means they will give a heap of old Nv parts too?

    It would be really interesting to know what the analysts get to know that we don't...
    Now you know why the analysts turned white when they said that. There are a bunch of stupid analysts, but most are on the ball, and have to be very careful about how they say things. I know some smart ones.

    One other thing to think about, analysts have a maximum outlook of 3Q. Anything more than that doesn't exist. It may be a nice bullet point in a note, but it doesn't affect their calculations.

    -Charlie

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by douglar View Post
    Personally I think Nvidia has a lot of the popular analysts under Jedi powers, payolla, or both. Looking at a lot of the recommendations hitting the news the week before earnings makes me thing those guys are gullible or have ulterior motives, like helping paying clients close positions.

    As for the Fermi sales, I think Nvidia found a way to bin the chips that allowed them to get more product on the shelves at a better performance than Charlie expected. It still isn't a very compelling product, but it isn't a complete embarrassment either. It is almost even an adequate place holder for the time being, but not quite, IMHO. I'd give it this epitaph: "It exceeded expectations because when it finally arrived, it was available in stores and only slightly embarrassing to own"

    The 40nm volume will arrive eventually. TMSC is converting old lines and adding capacity. It's just taking a long time.
    What NV did with the 470 and 480 was figure out how many they had to produce at a minimum to satisfy whatever numbers they had in mind, then binned for maximum performance based on that. They did. It 'worked'.

    The 465 is just a way to sell scrap at hopefully a profit. The wafers are paid for, so anything they can get for the 465 is likely profitable on paper. In the real world, it can't make money, or they would be running wafers 24/7.

    -Charlie

  8. #128
    Take a look at this:

    http://www.newegg.com/Product/CustVo...uctWinner.aspx

    A EVGA GTX480 took the customer award in May an that means
    more than 500 sold, so maybe they managed to produce more somehow,
    or pumped all into newegg.

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by madmac View Post
    so maybe they managed to produce more somehow,
    or pumped all into newegg.
    There's about 6.5K Fermi between the two Chinese supercomputers than just entered the top500 (#2 has 4640, #19 has about 2K).

    Does anyone still honestly think they only made about 10K total ?
    Not speaking for my employer.

  10. #130
    I'm not sure how much creedence to give to the Newegg customer choice awards, or how much you can actually read from them. I'm sure there are plenty of products that sold over 500 units in a month that have never even been nominated, e.g. Phenom II 720, which sold out at Newegg twice in its first month, likely thanks to the then newly-discovered core-unlocking capability. I don't remember it ever getting a nod for voting.

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