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Thread: Another AMD 6 month GPU lead = ??

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by APU_Fusion View Post
    2. And what are the deals in place even if they get those console deals? I bet you the margins will be razor thin. Until I see the ink it is great to speculate but I won't count on my future stock dividends.
    Counsels usually just provide development expenses, with little margin. Basically expect Counsels to cover R&D. Even if it only breaks even, you get your R&D paid for.
    -V
    My views and opinions do not represent those of my employer

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by sirroman View Post
    For differentiation in itself. Different HW can make each console better in one sense or other, be it performance, an specific capability or even price.

    Sony/M$ wouldn't want to make two consoles that are the same under the hood. Why split what doesn't need to be split? It would be better to just launch one and share the SW profits (maybe keeping only the 1st party revenue).

    If they want to differentiate with services like Live/PSN/whatever, it would make sense to tweak the HW and maybe have some edge, like the WiiU.
    'better in one sense or another' ... like WHAT? ... AMD's Neal Robinson has publicly stated the next Xbox will be capable of rendering graphics on par with Avatar's and have massive AI capability. @1080P. Kinect even at 4x it's present resolution will only need a tiny fraction of that kind of power. Same goes for Sony.

    What more is left? What possible additional cpu-gpu capability would create a differentiation that is even discernable to the end user, much less be large enough to sway a buying decision.

    Even now, with their current hugely different hardware, the determining factor for the vast majority of console buyers is console specific games, the interface~ecosystem~experience and COST - Kinect, Move, Live, PSN, XBLA, Netflix etc. Graphics differentiation has almost disappeared as a buying factor. It won't BE a factor in next gen consoles.

    Then there's the $$$$$$$$. If either Microsoft or Sony goes with a solution that is substantially more costly in development and hardware costs it is going to be at a severe disadvantage ... Sony's massive mindshare lead going into current gen consoles has disappeared, they are now are at relative mindshare parity, so Sony has absolutely NO excuse for substantially higher development/hardware costs than Microsoft, there is NO potential upside to that strategy, it can ONLY hurt it's bottom line.

    If Microsoft has decided to go with an AMD APU solution based on it being the optimal performance-cost solution available, Sony will face intense pressure to follow suit, because any OTHER solution is going to put them at a pricing disadvantage and adversely impact the profit outlook.

    Remember, Sony went into the current gen console battle considering themselves the UNASSAILABLE MASTERS OF THE CONSOLE UNIVERSE. They are now in last place.

    Unlike the "what, me worry about money?' current generation mindset that then prevailed, cost control will be a critical factor for the PS4 AND the XBOX 360 ~ smartphones.

    What makes the most $$$ sense for BOTH is to buy substantially the same APU solution, providing them BOTH with combined volume lower costs, which allows both to hit critical consumer price points that draw more people into console gaming and grow the pie for both and allow them to compete better with the new 800 lb. gaming gorilla that came 'out of nowhere', smart phones, and it's 100 lb cousin, tablets.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by spigzone View Post
    'better in one sense or another' ... like WHAT? ... AMD's Neal Robinson has publicly stated the next Xbox will be capable of rendering graphics on par with Avatar's and have massive AI capability. @1080P. Kinect even at 4x it's present resolution will only need a tiny fraction of that kind of power. Same goes for Sony.

    What more is left? What possible additional cpu-gpu capability would create a differentiation that is even discernable to the end user, much less be large enough to sway a buying decision.

    Even now, with their current hugely different hardware, the determining factor for the vast majority of console buyers is console specific games, the interface~ecosystem~experience and COST - Kinect, Move, Live, PSN, XBLA, Netflix etc. Graphics differentiation has almost disappeared as a buying factor. It won't BE a factor in next gen consoles.

    Then there's the $$$$$$$$. If either Microsoft or Sony goes with a solution that is substantially more costly in development and hardware costs it is going to be at a severe disadvantage ... Sony's massive mindshare lead going into current gen consoles has disappeared, they are now are at relative mindshare parity, so Sony has absolutely NO excuse for substantially higher development/hardware costs than Microsoft, there is NO potential upside to that strategy, it can ONLY hurt it's bottom line.

    If Microsoft has decided to go with an AMD APU solution based on it being the optimal performance-cost solution available, Sony will face intense pressure to follow suit, because any OTHER solution is going to put them at a pricing disadvantage and adversely impact the profit outlook.

    Remember, Sony went into the current gen console battle considering themselves the UNASSAILABLE MASTERS OF THE CONSOLE UNIVERSE. They are now in last place.

    Unlike the "what, me worry about money?' current generation mindset that then prevailed, cost control will be a critical factor for the PS4 AND the XBOX 360 ~ smartphones.

    What makes the most $$$ sense for BOTH is to buy substantially the same APU solution, providing them BOTH with combined volume lower costs, which allows both to hit critical consumer price points that draw more people into console gaming and grow the pie for both and allow them to compete better with the new 800 lb. gaming gorilla that came 'out of nowhere', smart phones, and it's 100 lb cousin, tablets.
    That's why I said that, if it's the same thing under the hood, then it makes more sense to launch only one console.

    If they can't (maybe there's no agreement between them, and M$ wouldn't want to license Kinect to Sony), it doesn't make much sense to just select the same solution, maybe something close, but not the same. Sony, for instance, would need to launch with either better graphics capabilities (maybe they can try to push something like ray tracing), better costs (tweaking the chip in a way that reduces it's price or maybe the TDP) or with something new altogether, which is what WiiU is doing (with two video outputs instead of one).

    Besides, there's major secrecy between the GPU teams that work with one partner or other, I remember that everybody vowed that the team that worked in Xenos didn't have any contact at all with the team that worked in Hollywood. This in itself would guarantee that the chips would be different.

    Maybe M$ asks for more cache, maybe Sony asks for more tessellation. Maybe Sony asks for trinity (BDZ cores + VLIW4), maybe M$ goes for an APU that uses GCN. Maybe Sony tries to throw some HW encryption to prevent pirating, maybe M$ tries to create an unified platform between console/PC.

    But I'm pretty sure that no one would just try to get the same solution of the other if they can prevent that, they will try to have an edge, even if slightly. That is the point: if you work with a partner to make a product, make it the best in comparison with the competition (again, not necessarily in performance).

    Besides, is avatar the same as real life? If no, there are advances that can be achieved in the future.

  4. #54
    That does makes sense. I just did a survey for EA Canada after my BF3 Alpha testing and they were inquiring about mobile gaming and web browsing. Long story short, Android and Windows Phone were tied at 30% and iPhone at 40%. Android/Windows Phone respondants were around ~2100 to help you out. I don't know how many total Alpha testers there were that did that survey, but it sure shows you they are curious at the mobile market. Essentially smartphones a year from now will be playing current console games. A bit dumbed down, but they will be capable. Average AAA titles on smartphone is ~$7 with signs of increasing as game quality and length increases. All you need is some multiplayer and voila, huge market.

    Consoles are relevant but they will be finding ways to attract attention. One way is to reduce costs as mentioned above. Essentially it'll be the software and controllers differentiating themselves. Not unlike most smartphones. If anything, I'll be curious to see if Apple still shies away from gaming in this area. Sure, the sort of have the PC with Steam, and probably ok on the iPhone and iPad but if consumers start buying into the ecosystem, Microsoft Phone/XBox 720/Windows 8, Sony Vita/Sony Phone/PS4 (or something like that???) that leaves Nintendo only holding two of three cards and Apple with two of three cards. Something has to give here...

    My $0.02 CND

  5. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by spigzone View Post
    Why does there need to be a hardware differentiation between them?
    So there is a difference in exclusive content, and I mean more than just game design, I want interesting implementations that take advantage of a system's hardware.

  6. #56
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    The problems are game devs - they arent going to make one game particularly suitable for one system AND the other, if they are vastly different. This gen, Sony has more powerful hardware, which is nightmare to get anything out of. What good it did? Nothing - everyone makes the game for XboX and then ports on more powerful PS3, as this is the easiest way to get both systems covered.
    The same will happen in next gen, unless one platform clearly has way more audience. If MS and Sony try to push different graphics candy in their next consoles, gamers will usually get neither - everyone will develop something suitable for both platforms and cut development costs on advanced graphics.

    I think Sony and MS will have very comparable HW this generation. MS will be a bit more powerful, as it will be running Kinect as well, but both should have very comparable graphics. I wonder if MS will use ARM chip for Kinect and TV/movies, while other gaming HW will be on something that could be shut down completely when not needed.

  7. #57
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    One good thing for AMD coming from the consoles is that noone will use CUDA. It's dead. Everyone will use OpenCL for physics on GPU which should give it a big boost.

  8. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by MirekCz View Post
    One good thing for AMD coming from the consoles is that noone will use CUDA. It's dead. Everyone* will use OpenCL for physics on GPU which should give it a big boost.
    Except Microsoft, that will most likely use DirectCompute and that C++ AMP thing. : )

    off-topic:
    maybe MS got that ARM architecture license to pass through some custom ARM core Kinect data? It would be quite neat as it would left whole APU for the game itself, not like today where Xbox360 does also the processing.
    Andy "Krazy" Glew <3 I also like soup.

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vithren View Post
    Except Microsoft, that will most likely use DirectCompute and that C++ AMP thing. : )
    It doesn't matter, what matter is making CUDA (and PhysiX for all that matter) less and less relevant.

    M$ is actually a partner in FSA with C++ AMP, AFAIK.

  10. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by sirroman View Post
    It doesn't matter, what matter is making CUDA (and PhysiX for all that matter) less and less relevant.

    M$ is actually a partner in FSA with C++ AMP, AFAIK.
    If Microsoft are a partner in FSA could Windows 8 be running on it? Or is this too soon?

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