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Thread: AMD Stock - Any more chances to buy well?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by fusion View Post
    Sounds like they just used their shares to help buy themselves out of contractual obligations, what's wrong with that?
    I apologize for the late response, I was unable to log in until today.

    In the first instance, it is only between AMD and Global Foundries that this type of arrangement exists.

    There are no such arrangement afaik between AMD and TSMC
    There are no such arrangement afaik between xyz and TSMC
    There are no such arrangement afaik between xyz and Global Foundries

    Why is that? Because they're non-arms' length parties.

    They should have avoided this at all cost for AMD's sake as a public company (as they should have avoided the keiretsu cross-ownership).

    But given the non-arms' length relationship between them, the nature of the agreement should have been clearly spelled out for all investors to see - losses or gains (yeah, right) under the agreement could have been recognized on a quarterly basis.

    As it stand, we are in the dark, in any given quarter AMD might be getting a subsidy from GF, or subsidizing GF. How can we trust the financial statements under such an environment? We can't.

    Clearly all they did with this arrangement was jump from the frying pan into the fire (kick the can down the road). At the very least, it was incompetence - the BoD and the CEO/CFO ought to have known better.

    Until this mess gets cleaned up, no investor can take AMD seriously.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by IAmNetburst View Post
    Out of curiosity, were you tempted to sell when they were around/over $8/share earlier this year? They are at $6.76 right now - that's a tempting entry price for me.
    Sorry for late reply, I was unable to log in until today.

    I was but my emotion got the better of me - still want AMD to succeed but it seems impossible now. They have a temporary win in APUs but whether its the traditional biz or tablet/smartphone, they're losing in graphics, the cpu business seems irrevocably lost, and they're doubling down on Server when they've been unable to make inroads despite pretty good products (as acknowledged by JF-AMD himself).

    You'd be better off investing in NVDA.

    * near its 52 week low

    * stellar balance sheet + 2.7B cash + current assets less liabilities versus minus (yikes) 700M for AMD - the balance sheet difference alone accounts for the entire market cap differential between the two companies.

    * unlike amd, no non-arms' length relationship skeletons which together with their stellar balance sheet, advantages them in dealing with vendors esp. tsmc.

    * making money the past 4 quarters - generated 500M cash the past year, after increasing its R&D and acquisitions.

    * focus on Android tablet feels like a home run - tablet is going to cause major pain to the notebook biz generally, plus it does away with the microsoft/intel tax. say what you will, JHH has a nose for where the market is going.

  3. #23
    JHH might have a nose, and an impressive ability to move the company fast - he is an excellent driver and changer. But that doesnt change the problem for NV that there is no gain from using the gforce brand on the tablets. Samsungs platforms and entire ecosystems be it production, technology and market wise is just so strong, and growing for each day, i dont see NV have anything of value to add be it tablets, phones or the likes.

    But as NV have this excellent balance sheet, even when haswell arives, will the high-end desktop and notebook market not be enough to continue making money - or what?,

    the question is then, in a red market - and thats how i interprete the pathetic earning for both now -, will it be NV or AMD that survives / or gain the upper hand for the left overs?

  4. #24
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    Sell in May, go away. :-)
    Easiest way to do.

    Pablo:
    focus on Android tablet feels like a home run - tablet is going to cause major pain to the notebook biz generally, plus it does away with the microsoft/intel tax. say what you will, JHH has a nose for where the market is going.
    Reply With Quote
    You can buy Android tablet for 28 - 50 USD (in 200+ quantities). How much should Tegra cost to be relevant on this playground?

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pablo View Post
    I apologize for the late response, I was unable to log in until today.

    In the first instance, it is only between AMD and Global Foundries that this type of arrangement exists.

    There are no such arrangement afaik between AMD and TSMC
    There are no such arrangement afaik between xyz and TSMC
    There are no such arrangement afaik between xyz and Global Foundries

    Why is that? Because they're non-arms' length parties.

    They should have avoided this at all cost for AMD's sake as a public company (as they should have avoided the keiretsu cross-ownership).

    But given the non-arms' length relationship between them, the nature of the agreement should have been clearly spelled out for all investors to see - losses or gains (yeah, right) under the agreement could have been recognized on a quarterly basis.

    As it stand, we are in the dark, in any given quarter AMD might be getting a subsidy from GF, or subsidizing GF. How can we trust the financial statements under such an environment? We can't.

    Clearly all they did with this arrangement was jump from the frying pan into the fire (kick the can down the road). At the very least, it was incompetence - the BoD and the CEO/CFO ought to have known better.

    Until this mess gets cleaned up, no investor can take AMD seriously.
    That arrangement existed because glofo was a part of AMD, and it was a part of AMD that was dragging them into bankruptcy. Why would ATIC take over billions in dept and a loss company with no guarantee that their ONLY customer won't jump ship as soon as they can?

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by fusion View Post
    That arrangement existed because glofo was a part of AMD, and it was a part of AMD that was dragging them into bankruptcy. Why would ATIC take over billions in dept and a loss company with no guarantee that their ONLY customer won't jump ship as soon as they can?
    No, the arrangement existed first and foremost to circumvent a restriction in the x86 cross-patent agreement, where x86 chips could not be manufactured outside the company, so AMD tried to disguise GLF as its subsidiary.

    ATIC locked up AMD not by keeping it on GLF's capital base (ATIC started to dilute AMD share as soon as the new agreement took place, ATIC wasn't interested at all in sharing control with AMD), but with legal bindings.

    It was those legal bindings, which BTW weren't disclosed in their financial statements, that were bought out with their last share of GLFs capital.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by krumme View Post
    JHH might have a nose, and an impressive ability to move the company fast - he is an excellent driver and changer. But that doesnt change the problem for NV that there is no gain from using the gforce brand on the tablets. Samsungs platforms and entire ecosystems be it production, technology and market wise is just so strong, and growing for each day, i dont see NV have anything of value to add be it tablets, phones or the likes.

    But as NV have this excellent balance sheet, even when haswell arives, will the high-end desktop and notebook market not be enough to continue making money - or what?,

    the question is then, in a red market - and thats how i interprete the pathetic earning for both now -, will it be NV or AMD that survives / or gain the upper hand for the left overs?
    I think they have several advantages. First, their relationship with TSMC and balance sheet should help cost, margin and profitability. Second, coming from PC side, they view the world different and aren't beholden to telco customers - you don't see Qualcomm or Samsung CEO talking up $199 tablets, do you? that's because this would po their telco's.

    3rd, they really haven't leveraged their superior GPU tech. from the benchmarks I've seen - there is major untapped potential there. Fourth, they own the PC channel - Tosh, Asus, Acer already line up Tegra3 for their tablets, NV talking up Windows 8 on ARM as well, more so than Samsung.

    Samsung is not without weaknesses - years ago they bought AST (PC vendor) and while it was already in trouble, they couldn't fix it and ended up shutting it down. Not successful being notebook oem. Generally, they're very strong in raw technology and manufacturing but not so nimble - btw, its no coincidence why they did so well in TVs (Sony) and smartphones (Apple)...

    looking at tablet, Apple is going to own the high end, Samsung might make inroads with superior panel tech. In mainstream/value, open ball game:

    - industrial design - not much value-add given cost constraints
    - batteries - commodity
    - panel - commodity
    - flash - commodity
    - dram - commodity
    - operating system - Google, Microsoft IP
    - CPU core - ARM IP
    - mfg nimbleness

    value add comes from fabless semiconductor side esp. gpu, integration of the above, mfg/logistics/channel.

    btw, elephant in the room is going to be the Chinese brands IMO. I'm shocked they can compete in cell. phone and so nimble re. Android TV boxes and media players.

    BTW, you should read Logic of Failure by Dorner (avail. in german,english), great book on mgmt decision-making failure...then think about how it applies to RR/AMD's situation.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Pablo View Post
    I think they have several advantages. First, their relationship with TSMC and balance sheet should help cost, margin and profitability. Second, coming from PC side, they view the world different and aren't beholden to telco customers - you don't see Qualcomm or Samsung CEO talking up $199 tablets, do you? that's because this would po their telco's
    While I agree that samsung won't do a 199USD tablet, the same cannot be said about Qualcomm. Qualcomm has no stake in relationship with telcos, their customers have.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvidiot View Post
    While I agree that samsung won't do a 199USD tablet, the same cannot be said about Qualcomm. Qualcomm has no stake in relationship with telcos, their customers have.
    you may be right, Qualcomm is a great company, quite nimble for their size, mgmt knows what they are doing, and they just hired Demers...but its also always been fully valued so not much opportunity there.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pablo View Post
    ... they just hired Demers ...
    I think they just hired Demers because he was worked on FSA (now HSA). No doubt that the future is heterogeneous. There is no other way to scale throughput performance. From the programmer's perspective, this is really weird, but the law of physics will win as always, so we must learn these new programing models.
    Fusion is now a separate CPU and GPU connected on the die. But this is a small part of AMDs vision. The HSA from a hardware aspect is really interesting. Integrating these cores with shared cache hierarchies, address space, and page tables is a pioneering idea. Now it's looks like ARM will copy this scheme, but they need a vISA for it. That's where HSA and AMD come in. Every player in this market, will need to support an LLVA like this, but theres no time to built an own. Luckily for them HSA is open. Now they just need to build hardware support for HSA functions. Demers is the right person for this job.

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