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Thread: The Downfall of Microsoft

  1. #1
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    The Downfall of Microsoft

    http://www.vanityfair.com/online/dai...-steve-ballmer

    via Techreport

    though short I thought the story was interesting, frankly I didn't expect a story like this until about a year from now. Balmer is definitley going to get the brunt of the blame for Microsoft's downfall despite it being more of an institutional thing based on a decades worth of monopoly and stagnation.

    I really wish a strong opensource linux player (not Google) could step into the breach, but frankly neither gnome kde or unity have a viable desktop/mobile/tablet ui
    - Better living through merciless experimentation

  2. #2
    >intel 4004
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    Consecutive wrong decisions coupled with late responds (especially on the handheld device front: smartphones/tablets, and cloud computing) and couldn't face the change brought by the Internet. Information at your fingertips" is quite a good idea, too bad the infrastructure is not ready about that back then. And now?

    The Internet actually has attention deficit disorder, when it comes to new and shiny technologies. What's with all the rage today, could be cooled down completely by tomorrow.

    So at the end, the moral is cast aside your large corporation pride, respond promptly to new trends, throw away your idea copy machines and execute well. Without the first three, a 100% perfect execution is meaningless.

  3. #3
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    The only real problem MS has is that they use stack ranking for their employees. Get rid of stack let managers run their own departments and MS would see a huge change very quickly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vapor View Post
    I really wish a strong opensource linux player (not Google) could step into the breach, but frankly neither gnome kde or unity have a viable desktop/mobile/tablet ui
    Android is quite usable. Samsung Bada/Meego/Tizen too. People now use more iOS, Android than Windows.
    Why people need Windows at home? As game loader. At work it depends on software you use. We are Microsoft house, because we use Office 2003, with slow move to 2007, because of Excel.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 265586888 View Post
    Consecutive wrong decisions coupled with late responds (especially on the handheld device front: smartphones/tablets, and cloud computing) and couldn't face the change brought by the Internet. Information at your fingertips" is quite a good idea, too bad the infrastructure is not ready about that back then. And now?

    The Internet actually has attention deficit disorder, when it comes to new and shiny technologies. What's with all the rage today, could be cooled down completely by tomorrow.

    So at the end, the moral is cast aside your large corporation pride, respond promptly to new trends, throw away your idea copy machines and execute well. Without the first three, a 100% perfect execution is meaningless.

    I disagree with your opinion on their corporate pride. I feel that their problem is a very intrinsic cultural thing that's been their since the very founding of the company. They're so used to being in the big leagues and have been so obsessed with their golden geese (first basic then windows) that they've built their entire company on evolution and are completely unprepared for any radical shifts or new idea's on the market that they made (home computing), "bet on what you know" and all.

    Basically what I'm saying is, they can't respond because they don't know how to. That's why they're throwing away their loyal userbase by completely doing away the interface that they've all grown used to and have thrown together something completely new and weird that's nowhere near as easy and intuiative as iOS or even Android. Don't get me wrong it looks pretty. But what they've done is just ridiculous.

    I mean seriously, who not only throws away their huge advantage with there massive userbase that's familiar with their interface but also divides their entire developer base in two with Windows RT. It's almost as if they've done every single thing in their power to put themselves on even ground with Tizen or Meego.

    And even then I'd still love Meego better.

    But I do agree with your assessment about how the market has Internet Deficit Disorder and that's good for innovation, having said that, don't underestimate the force of market momentum and familiarity, which is a powerful thing, for both iOS/iPhone/iPad users and Windows users. In fact the contrast between iOS and Windows, is a pretty crystal clear example of how and how not to do things respectively when it comes to expanding your userbase.

    Quote Originally Posted by pmoses
    Android is quite usable. Samsung Bada/Meego/Tizen too. People now use more iOS, Android than Windows.
    Why people need Windows at home? As game loader. At work it depends on software you use. We are Microsoft house, because we use Office 2003, with slow move to 2007, because of Excel.
    Oh I agree on Android, I actually really like using it, it's enjoyable has a lot of great apps and is getting better and better with each new release. But it's not really opensource the way Ubuntu, Debian and Firefox are open source if you know what I mean. I really like Meego a lot more due to it's openness. It would be awesome if I could easily ROM Switch it into any phone I want.

    On another note have you tried Open Office ,it's free multiplatform and should work easily with the vast majority of Office format's, if you haven't I'd really be curious about your thought's on it as a long time Office user.
    - Better living through merciless experimentation

  6. #6
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    Well, what can they blame? The only thing they have is the idea copy machines. Evolution on such plagiarized ideas will eventually meet diminishing returns, so they will naturally need to copy more.

    You could say it's the company culture that makes them unable to respond to radical changes. But, it's not like the Internet and the users gave them absolutely no chances at all. From Windows XP to Windows 8, 2001 to 2013, 12 years and the excuse is "they probably don't know how to respond"? I don't think so. They have had enough time and effort to discover that response, but their decision was obviously ignoring it altogether.

    UMPC was actually a small step in the good direction, though, but they only need to make a few more steps to that direction. When we look back, it's the decision to take the steps or not, and that can change everything.

    Back to the Windows, in their defense, Windows had always been x86-based until Windows RT (I exclude WinCE because it's not trimmed down version of the Windows NT kernel, and it's for embedded systems only), the decision to reach out to the ARM SoC consumer world will indeed be painful, because previously Microsoft has literally zero consumer install-base, so it's a very ugly uphill battle to begin with.

    They could choose to stick with x86-based low-power processors like Atom or AMD E-series APUs, but most of them wouldn't fit into the TDP range as the ARM-based SoCs, and those x86 low-power processors are also "new to market". I believe they made this decision based on the projected number of ARM-based devices in the near future. The intention to support ARM is good, but they forget they are already late to the party, but still pretending as the party host and make things worse with their hardware design partners, i.e. OEMs.

    Microsoft can't get rid of their pride, and they just accepts whatever stereotype people imposed on them. "So yeah, I am a big company, and I am so stiff on new technologies, because I am a big company. What? ARM? Oh that looks... interesting... Let me see... (3 years later)... So we will support ARM, everyone rejoice!" That's when everyone was using iOS 4 and Android 2.2/2.3...

    "Information at your fingertips", something Bill Gates envisioned in early 1990s, and we look at the current moment... Who made that came true?

    Okay, enough hindsight.

  7. #7
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    We're generally in agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by 265586888 View Post
    but their decision was obviously ignoring it altogether.
    Automobiles what automobiles it'll never catch on we breed the finest horses in the business and that's all people will ever need.

    Anyway. I say they should dump Wndow's RT altogether and keep their developer base intact and adopt that intel phone chip wholeheartedly. If they want to go multiplatform then they should adopt that internal project they had that detached the OS completely from the hardware making totally architecture agnostic, forgot what the project's name was, possibly something to do with microkernel framework but I can't remember.

    They should also treat the whole tiles based interface thing as a touch friendly version of present day shortcut's and pins. And for heavens sake bring back the start button and taskbar and make the start menu look similar to the current Windows Phone 7 menu, on the phone OS start button should also appear at the bottom of the screen as one bar that opens the menu and can be slid upwards to reveal a active apps list that can be flicked through side to side. By that same token dragging the taskbar upwards by finger in the tablet version should be able to do the same thing (reveal a list of currently active apps) similar to the current android except on the horizontal axis as opposed to the vertical. Whereas in the desktop version a simple mouse over temporarily lifts the entire taskbar up to reveal the active apps beneath it on the horizontal axis.

    Basically continuity across Phone/Tablet/Desktop. pressing start button brings up Windows Phone 7/ Star Menu alike thing, dragging up or mousing over the task bar lifts it up and shows thumbnails of all acitve apps beneath it. All very similar to current Windows 7 that brings up start menu when you click the start button or gives you a small thumbnail preview of the application when you mouse over the taskbar. Would that be so hard ?

    Anyway. We can all agree that this complete and total fumble from Microsoft isn't going to end anytime soon so we can all rejoice for a more diverse OS field in the future with hopefully a bigger linux presence.
    - Better living through merciless experimentation

  8. #8
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    The operating system being architecture agnostic is very difficult when it comes to CISC vs. RISC, it's essentially this all over again when it comes to the case of Windows x86 vs. Windows RT. There are no easy way to get through the trouble, even for WinCE, which supports a variety of platforms including ARM and MIPS, have no solution to run cross-platform applications, the coder still have to create different versions (or ports) for different platforms and architectures, no exceptions.

    You could try software translation, like BlueStacks or Wine, or hardware-assisted translation like the one on Loongson (x86 to MIPS). But still the pure-blood crowd will give it a cold-shoulder because it's not "native" implementation, so someone has to provide incentives to at least make a big push for porting applications to the Windows RT from Windows x86/Android/iOS if it needs to be baseline successful.

    The touch UI color scheme and the new "tiles" layout is subject to taste, to me I liked the idea of the taskbar with Snap but with simplified start menu.

    And the over-focus on "touch" probably make some don't want to do the upgrade on the existing PCs. So a multi-touch screen is required to start a complete Windows 8 experience, and the change from 6.1.7601.17514 to 6.2.8xxx.xxxxx causes a butterfly effect to the systems files and a related upgrade cost to ensure the user a complete Windows 8 experience? Ugh...

  9. #9
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    The solution to run ARM code on x86 will come from Intel, not Microsoft. Besides, Android already demonstrated how it can work through Dalvik managed code and the NDK building native code for 3 architectures (ARM, MIPS, x86) simultaneously.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marach View Post
    The only real problem MS has is that they use stack ranking for their employees. Get rid of stack let managers run their own departments and MS would see a huge change very quickly.
    Reducing Microsoft's problems to stack ranking is an oversimpification. How many of the reasons to not buy WP7 (count is at 121 currently) would be addressed by abolishing stack ranking?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by chithanh View Post
    How many of the reasons to not buy WP7 (count is at 121 currently) would be addressed by abolishing stack ranking?
    I can break that list into 5 groups
    1. complaints not actual problems
    2. actual problems
    3. It's not Android WAAHHHHHHHH
    4. It's not IOS WAAAAAAHHH
    5. It's not symbian HUGE WAAAAHHHHHHHH
    I'll add a sixth "Problems that are 3rd party apps not existing" seriously "lack of swype" is listed!

    most problems seem to fall into 3 to 5.


    Also imagine if workers rather than having to worry about making an impression on the bosses they could actually work on their projects. Stack ranking has a HUGE influence on a company. If you know that one of you will always get canned no matter how great your whole team works you don't work on the project completely you focus on keeping out of that bottom rank.

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