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Thread: Xbox next (Speculation, news and Rumors)

  1. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by integrated View Post
    Great work!!! I realize that GPUs cost less than cards on the wholesale market, but when they whole product including margins (and board and RAM, etc) costs $400+, and mrcteam says 150% of that will fit into a console +CPU +BDR +gamepad +PSU +kinect +margin for the same price, I feel a little skeptical.

    Your point is well taken, the silicon from AMD won't break MS' bank.







    From another side, isn't the 7970 already a bit of overkill at 1080?

    Why would MS invest in 50% more shader HW for a 1080-bound device? Do they really think 3D is coming back? With a 7970 on board, they would already be destroying the PS4 (32vs18), so why spend more/lose more money?

    My impossible dream is dual-display support, for the best in local multiplayer...

    Back to reality, I'm not saying MS couldn't pack in more power, but why would they? These guys do cost/benefit analysis before spending, so what's to gain from rocking 48CUs in a 1080-bound game-console?
    It's only overkill for current games at that resolution. No I think when you get to these kinds of performances you get diminishing returns on image quality and so need exponential increases in performance to see a difference.

  2. #252
    Quote Originally Posted by testbug00 View Post
    one, your tone seems sarcastic. i do not think it is, but it feels like it.
    and yes, of course their are other costs --> ~$325-375 (if 7970 GPU) WITHOUT KINECT2...

    TWO, your original post implied that MS would be paying $400 for a GPU. i could see someone saying 200 (if you take all system RAM into the cost and the part of board needed for GPU). $400 was just silly to say.

    because of that i imagine if they used something more like a 7870 costs APPROX 300-350 and than with Kinect2 involved at $400 with little or no profit per console (advertising costs per console will probably drive ASP over $400, not including R&D)



    the only reason they would put it in is if they are using TONS and TONS of compute for everything or plan to support 2K display screens (lets just use the real name). Otherwise no good reason to.




    NOTE: really cannot say much about how much power is needed because we don't know what-how much is going to be used and how tight the transistors will be packed...

    1 Absolutely no intention of sarcasm, my apologies if it sounded insulting!

    2 I never meant to suggest that, sorry if I was unclear. Let's be realistic though, the non-GPU costs for a GFX card are lower than for a console. I was countering that if a ~350mm^2 GPU needs to sell for $390+ (newegg check at time of post), then a console using the same +50% GPU is unlikely to be profitable for that price. I personally believe MS won't launch above $400, and I'm unsure of how aggressively they plan to subsidize.


    Regarding overkill, you're right. Overkill for today's games, but MS may have serious compute plans. Tahiti+50% still seems more aggressive than a typical console GPU at launch.




    Quote Originally Posted by fatty2nd View Post
    It's only overkill for current games at that resolution. No I think when you get to these kinds of performances you get diminishing returns on image quality and so need exponential increases in performance to see a difference.


    Point taken, and if MS can afford to do it then why not! Higher res (I think unlikely to be significant during the nextbox's lifespan), or compute for physics, or amazing rendering like we've never before seen, or something as yet unthought of could justify that power.



    Additional thought, if MS is trying to repeat the EDRAM trick from last gen, doesn't that take AA pressure off the GPU and mem BW?

  3. #253
    @mistercteam

    So, let me see.

    That O, from the graphics, is something that can do 1 thread, where each operation needs 4 ALUs per clock, where each ALU delivers 3 operations per clock. So, it`s 3TF or more.

  4. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by integrated View Post
    Additional thought, if MS is trying to repeat the EDRAM trick from last gen, doesn't that take AA pressure off the GPU and mem BW?
    Yes. Lots.

    This time, unconstrained by limited memory resources, it will probably work too.
    To find the right answers you must ask the right questions.

  5. #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by integrated View Post
    1 Absolutely no intention of sarcasm, my apologies if it sounded insulting!

    2 I never meant to suggest that, sorry if I was unclear. Let's be realistic though, the non-GPU costs for a GFX card are lower than for a console. I was countering that if a ~350mm^2 GPU needs to sell for $390+ (newegg check at time of post), then a console using the same +50% GPU is unlikely to be profitable for that price. I personally believe MS won't launch above $400, and I'm unsure of how aggressively they plan to subsidize.
    1. I did not think you were, but emotionally I felt you were... I seperate my emotion and logic way to much... And thanks
    2. They do not NEED to sell the 350mm^2 GPU at $390. I linked to the 460 being a bit over 350mm^2 which was sold at 200-220 once fully made. Hope my criticism over price you used makes more sense now.

  6. #256
    Quote Originally Posted by sangreal View Post
    Oban is 32nm Xbox 360 SoC (which afaik hasn't made it into any products yet). I've posted about this before, but you can find a few references to it on linked in. eg:

    http://www.linkedin.com/in/chenguo
    BE22 – migration of PS3 Cell processor to 22nm
    Responsible for top-level large-block synthesis of the entire SPU (Synergistic Processing Unit). Was able to achieve route-ability and timing closure through sophisticated synthesis techniques involving detailed floor-planning, custom pre-wires and latch placement, custom routing algorithms, and soft/hard placement boundaries.
    Oban – migration of XBOX PowerPC chip to 32nm
    Helped to develop the flow for schematic and layout migration of key circuits, and led efforts to trouble-shoot the verification-flow (in addition to passing all checks ahead of schedule). Also led analog migration of the RNG and played a key role in fixing a critical component of the circuit.
    Everybody wrong on this.

    ARM chips to rival PS3, Xbox 360 in 18 months? July 2011

    ARM has been beating the performance drum again, this time telling the Inquirer that a new Mali GPU design due out in 18 months will make its chips the equal of current-gen gaming consoles like the Xbox 360 and the Playstation 3.

    So yes, given a process shrink to 28nm or thereabouts, it seems quite possible that ARM will at the very least be able to pack as much hardware as the Xbox 360 does into an application processor.
    We are now seeing 28nm in the PS4 and Xbox 720 and nearly 10X the GPU performance of the PS3 with less power used than the first versions of the PS3 and speculation that the power used will be less than 30% greater than the latest revision of the PS3. So PS4 like hardware at PS3 performance should be in the 20 watt range, ARM designs should be more efficient (Apx 5 watts). Temesh at 15 watts has demo games that look similar/better than PS3 games.

    ARM-BASED XBOX ‘LITE’ COMING IN 2013, XBOX 360 SUCCESSOR LATER, INSIDER CLAIMS March 2012

    “My understanding is that we’ll see a Xbox device in late 2013 which does Arcade-style games & all the current & future media apps with Kinect (with near-mode),” MS Nerd wrote on Reddit while fielding user-submitted questions. “It will be an ARM-based platform price-competitive with the Apple TV (if you own a Kinect already).”
    This was recently seconded by another reporter, XBOX 360 that runs Win RT (ARM) and is supposed to be Xbox 360 compatible. March 2013 I'm guessing this takes the place of the Xbox 361 (1080P & XTV support) that was projected for end of 2012 in the 4/2010 leaked Xbox 720 powerpoint


    Trustzone and XTV support, PPC processor and the more modern energy efficient ARM IP & Mali 600 series GPU emulating the Xbox 360 GPU? What plans for the 22nm Cell? What is taking so long if the SemiAccurate post on Oban taping out Dec 2011 for Microsoft and in production quantities is accurate?

  7. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeff_rigby View Post
    What is taking so long if the SemiAccurate post on Oban taping out Dec 2011 for Microsoft and in production quantities is accurate?
    Yields on embedded eDRAM ?

    I'm assuming APU's without eDRAM have fairly good yields ? Seeing as they are not exactly expensive ? As eDRAM is the only 'new' technology that's been added (and on a new process for eDRAM), I'd assume it kind of has to be that ? There have been several hints by Charlie and others about yield problems in the past. They just didn't specify exactly what they refered to. My guess, based on simple logic, is it's eDRAM. As there aren't many other likely candidates.

    But meh, the ones with failed eDRAM will probably get re-used as something else. Maybe a cheap Xbox 'lite' with limited AA and only SD/720p support for developing markets ? Who knows. It's all speculation.
    To find the right answers you must ask the right questions.

  8. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey View Post
    Yields on embedded eDRAM ?

    I'm assuming APU's without eDRAM have fairly good yields ? Seeing as they are not exactly expensive ? As eDRAM is the only 'new' technology that's been added (and on a new process for eDRAM), I'd assume it kind of has to be that ? There have been several hints by Charlie and others about yield problems in the past. They just didn't specify exactly what they refered to. My guess, based on simple logic, is it's eDRAM. As there aren't many other likely candidates.

    But meh, the ones with failed eDRAM will probably get re-used as something else. Maybe a cheap Xbox 'lite' with limited AA and only SD/720p support for developing markets ? Who knows. It's all speculation.
    • Oban – migration of XBOX PowerPC chip to 32nm
    Helped to develop the flow for schematic and layout migration of key circuits, and led efforts to trouble-shoot the verification-flow (in addition to passing all checks ahead of schedule). Also led analog migration of the RNG and played a key role in fixing a critical component of the circuit.
    ARM-BASED XBOX ‘LITE’ COMING IN 2013, XBOX 360 SUCCESSOR LATER, INSIDER CLAIMS March 2012

    It seems from the above that in March 2012 it (Xbox 360 successor) was planned for later so it's not yield issues.

    It's an older node with a simpler older design and IBM is using MUCH larger eDRAM @ 32nm in their Power 7. Likely the 32nm Xbox 360S is being married with a 28 nm ARM SoC and on the ARM side is the delay. If it's getting a Mali 600 series GPU, it was first seen in prototype form August 2012 and ARM Mali GPUs Submitted for OpenGL ES 3.0 Conformance 3/2013. Who knows but the delay screwed with my speculation and caused issues with Charlie....This combining ARM with conventional SoCs and APUs is only in hindsight making sense.

    And yes, it does make sense to have a cheaper Xbox lite ARM only with Mali 600 series GPU, some of the Xbox 360 versions could be binned for it. I don't know how they are going to price it as the XBOX 360/ARM version is rumored at $99 without Kinect, maybe that is wrong and the Xbox lite is $99 with the Xbox 360/ARM @ $149 without kinect.

  9. #259
    @ mistercteam

    Why continue with all these assumptions when it has been widely confirmed that the leak of vgleaks are true and important software house like Epic are claiming that the ps4 is a monster of power and the next xbox will be at most aligned (that does not mean it will have the same power but simply that does not suck like the WiiU).
    Resigned MS is betting everything on kinect 2 and the price.The MS who thought that the power of a console was the most important thing died long time ago with the arrival of kinect
    The only thing left to hope is that the next xbox has some new exclusive AAA all the rest are just dreams

  10. #260
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    I wasn't talking about a 360 successor. I was talking about a cheaper 720 'Lite' with slightly reduced graphics capability and maybe no Kinect etc. For emerging markets. Who'd probably like to play all the next gen AAA games, but don't necessarily need 'Full HD'.

    My bad for not putting '720 Lite'.
    To find the right answers you must ask the right questions.

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