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Thread: Polaris 10 size / performance estimation

  1. #591
    Quote Originally Posted by testbug00 View Post
    From what I've seen posted here by people who know better than me and also in AMD's slides is that 14nm doesn't allow much if any higher clocks. Polaris might, but I think the idea of AMD getting 200mhz+ on their products to be very optimistic.
    The process in general allows higher speed at the same power. But the reality is that the chip guys are usually looking for a balance between the two, which could be contextual & subjective to their changes in the design. In other words, it is hard to be guessed by random posters on the forums (like all of us, perhaps...?).

    That's said we know it is around the size of Cape Verde, and 14nm gonna bring ~2x transistor density. So estimating from the size of Fiji gives you like 70 mm2 for 16 CUs - without the GDDR5 PHYs and 3/4 of the graphics pipeline, multimedia IPs and I/O though. Hopefully you can still pack a few CUs after adding back those stuff.

  2. #592
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey View Post
    Point being that if Charlie (and AMD themselves) are correct, and Polaris does indeed appear on shelves months before Pascal, it's a pretty fair bet that the ~80%/20% sales split that Nvidia currently enjoy, will be completely reversed.

    And if Pascal isn't up to snuff, it will stay that way.
    It all makes sense. AMD's GPU orders are now almost 4x higher than they've been over the past year in order to meet demand. NVIDIA will not lower prices on 28-nm parts to slow market share loss, no one will wait for NVIDIA 16-nm GPUs, OEMs stop offering NVIDIA GPUs as options the day Polaris launches, etc.

    Good luck with that.

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  3. #593
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    Quote Originally Posted by eRacer View Post
    It all makes sense. AMD's GPU orders are now almost 4x higher than they've been over the past year in order to meet demand. NVIDIA will not lower prices on 28-nm parts to slow market share loss, no one will wait for NVIDIA 16-nm GPUs, OEMs stop offering NVIDIA GPUs as options the day Polaris launches, etc.

    Good luck with that.
    OEMs can continue offering Nvidia products but all of them will be inferior. Not that they aren't now but then it will be much more obvious...

    If AMD marketing are people with potential, they can quickly turn the trend in the positive for them direction.
    There are many advantages AMD Radeons bring, so they need to focus on them and somehow find a way to convince consumers.

    They have to study Apple's practices and just repeat.

  4. #594
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgiD View Post
    OEMs can continue offering Nvidia products but all of them will be inferior. Not that they aren't now but then it will be much more obvious...

    If AMD marketing are people with potential, they can quickly turn the trend in the positive for them direction.
    There are many advantages AMD Radeons bring, so they need to focus on them and somehow find a way to convince consumers.

    They have to study Apple's practices and just repeat.
    The trend has been slightly positive for AMD over the last couple quarters. With AMD making huge strides in efficiency at 14-nm the trend should stay positive even if NVIDIA were to launch 16-nm at the same time. In my opinion the best case scenario AMD gets up to 10% more market share in a quarter (for example, moving from 21% to 31% overall market share), but realistically any single quarter gain could be quite a bit less.

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  5. #595
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    Quote Originally Posted by eRacer View Post
    It all makes sense. AMD's GPU orders are now almost 4x higher than they've been over the past year in order to meet demand. NVIDIA will not lower prices on 28-nm parts to slow market share loss, no one will wait for NVIDIA 16-nm GPUs, OEMs stop offering NVIDIA GPUs as options the day Polaris launches, etc.

    Good luck with that.
    Luck won't have anything to do with it. Timing will. The first FF cards will get the lions share of sales. Simple as that. Particularly if they are faster and more efficient than existing 28nm ones.

    Would you not say the same if Pascal was going to launch months ahead of Polaris ? I would. It's just common sense.
    To find the right answers you must ask the right questions.

  6. #596
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey View Post
    Luck won't have anything to do with it. Timing will. The first FF cards will get the lions share of sales. Simple as that. Particularly if they are faster and more efficient than existing 28nm ones.

    Would you not say the same if Pascal was going to launch months ahead of Polaris ? I would. It's just common sense.
    Do you really think millions of 14-nm AMD GPUs have already been produced and 6+ million 14-nm AMD Radeon cards will be ready to sell within a few months after Polaris launches? Having a better product, and having one available in absolutely massive quantities are two different things. Same goes for Pascal.

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  7. #597
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    Quote Originally Posted by eRacer View Post
    Do you really think millions of 14-nm AMD GPUs have already been produced and 6+ million 14-nm AMD Radeon cards will be ready to sell within a few months after Polaris launches? Having a better product, and having one available in absolutely massive quantities are two different things. Same goes for Pascal.
    OEMs want to make money too. They will simply switch production from Maxwell to Polaris. Whatever sells. The ones that don't probably won't be selling much for several months. Possibly longer.
    To find the right answers you must ask the right questions.

  8. #598
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey View Post
    OEMs want to make money too. They will simply switch production from Maxwell to Polaris. Whatever sells. The ones that don't probably won't be selling much for several months. Possibly longer.
    And what happens is NVIDIA lowers margins, OEMs lower margins, prices go down and market share erosion is slowed. There will still be money to be made, just not as much. Perhaps a couple NVIDIA exclusive partners start selling some AMD cards too. But there will be no instant 20/80 > 80/20 flip in market share.

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  9. #599
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    Quote Originally Posted by eRacer View Post
    And what happens is NVIDIA lowers margins, OEMs lower margins, prices go down and market share erosion is slowed. There will be no instant 20/80 > 80/20 flip in market share.
    Good luck with that.
    To find the right answers you must ask the right questions.

  10. #600
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey View Post
    Good luck with that.
    Keep dreaming that NVIDIA cards will have no value at any price the day Polaris launches and AMD and their partners will have millions of cards ready for sale. I guess you are expecting AMD to lose a couple hundred million dollars this quarter above and beyond their usual Q1 losses to pay for all of those wafers needed to make millions more GPUs than usual.

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