The latest GPU marketshare numbers from Jon Peddie are out, and it looks like we have a new leader in GPUs, AMD. According to the numbers released today, Q1 saw AMD overtake Nvidia in year over year GPU marketshare, and the turn-around promised last February fizzle.
The full release can be found here, but the shorter story is that AMD went from 24.2% to 24.8% in marketshare, Intel from 52.5% to 54.4%, and Nvidia from 22.5% to 20.0%. For year over year numbers, AMD gained 3.3%, Intel 4.8%, and Nvidia lost 8%. Given that total shipments grew about 10% for the quarter, the only surprising thing is that Nvidia actually lost ground there too.
The raw numbers from Jon Peddie Research
These numbers include integrated GPUs, so that is why Intel is leading by a long shot. Intel has about an 80% share of the PC market, and 66% of those ship with integrated GPUs. Just as SemiAccurate predicted years ago, Nvidia is being squeezed out of the market by Moore’s law, and it will be getting much worse as soon as Llano ships later this quarter.
The most disturbing part about this is going back and reading the predictions from Nvidia top brass over the last two quarterly investor conference calls. If you compare and contrast the statements made there to the reality on the ground, there seems to be quite a large credibility gap. The calls have a massive disclaimer at the beginning, and it is house legal approved and likely SEC cleared too. Still, it makes you wonder. Given the lead time in chip sales, and the lead times on designs like the MacBooks and iMacs, you have to wonder where they came up with the stated numbers. Things sound eerily similar to the promised flood of Tegra design wins that never happened, don’t they?
If you combine all the trends, starting with losing Apple as a customer, then continuing down an obviously wrong architectural path, to ignoring several critical design trends, and finally resorting to buying marketshare, things are looking awfully dire for the boys in green. If you look in to when those marketshare predictions were made, and how long in advance orders are placed, I think it is time for a new crystal ball in the executive deliberation center and washroom.
AMD is in the lead for GPUs now, and the gap between the two companies is picking up while the market is shrinking. You are seeing the end game for GPUs entering the final phases, and Nvidia still does not have a viable exit strategy. The loss of marketshare leadership, is a huge psychological blow, and combined with Nvidia failing to take back performance leadership for the second generation running, you can see the writing on the wall. Game over, at least for Nvidia GPUs.S|A
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